Tackling the urban mobility challenge

The motor car has transformed lives around the globe by providing affordable and rapid personal transport to the masses. But its success has come at a cost in terms of congestion, pollution and impact on the planet. City planners must now focus their efforts on more sustainable transport solutions to create environmentally-friendly, liveable, and attractive places for our growing and increasingly urbanised populations to live and work in.

Our love affair with the motor car began more than a century ago with its invention in the late 19th Century. With continuous technological advances, there has been a global revolution in personal mobility, allowing for door-to-door trips to be made with increasing speed, reliability, comfort, and safety.

Fast forward to the 21st Century, with rising global population that is becoming more affluent and urbanised, the aspiration of car and motorcycle ownership is now within reach of the masses.  It is increasingly clear that such ownership, with its sophistication, convenience and practicality has become a victim of its own success with congestions, delays and pollution in most cities.

City planners and engineers have wrestled with the problem over the decades to meet the insatiable demands for personal motorised transport.

But, overwhelmed by the sheer volume of vehicular traffic, we now realise that the once life-transforming motor car is simply no longer a sustainable solution for the world’s cities.  As renowned urban designer Lewis Mumford once put it: “Cities are built for the care and culture of men, not for the constant passage of motor vehicles.”

So what went wrong?

First, it was the belief that we could always build our way out of congestion with massive road projects.  We now understand that this is not the case. No city has ever succeeded in doing so and there is a wealth of research that demonstrates how road construction and improvement actually generates more traffic that further adds to congestion.

Second, it was the laissez-faire attitude of allowing market forces and public preference dictate our design and policy decisions. Instead of pushing for investment in mass transport as the preferred mode of transport, the private car has been allowed to dominate public infrastructure investment decisions, leaving public transport playing second fiddle in most cities.

A consequence of this road dominant investment strategy has been the significant impact on the economy of congested cities. Road congestion costs time, thus reducing productivity. As well as affecting private vehicles and buses, it also impacts freight vehicles (which account for some 20% to 30% of traffic on the roads) thereby increasing costs and reducing efficiency.

Furthermore, the uncontrolled use of fossil-fuelled private vehicles producing about 20% of the greenhouse gases contributes to global warming. Road accident fatalities account for about 1.2 million in the world. The cost of congestion arising from unchecked growth in car population in terms of lost man-hours, accidents and pollution amount to a staggering figure.

Is there a way out of this predicament?

There are a number of possible solutions to the road problems plaguing cities around the world – many of which Singapore had adopted over the past four decades.

At the heart of these solutions is a realisation that the urban traveller is really only interested in three things:

  • to travel safely;
  • in the shortest travel time and;
  • at the lowest travel cost.

Although each on its own is a very simple concept, yet as we have found in Singapore, they are not easily achieved without appropriate investment in planning, design and operations.

That means embracing the urban mobility challenge as a fundamental part of the holistic town planning process. It means understanding and accepting that every decision on the land use made by a town planner has an impact on the city’s transport system – an impact that must be addressed to enable people to move from one place to another to carry on their activities in safety, in time and at an affordable cost.

Public transport to maximise the efficiency of space

Clearly investment in better, modern public transport is the obvious place to start when it comes to tackling a city’s congestion problem and maximising the use of precious surface space. While a car with four passengers is an efficient vehicle, in most cities the average car carries only around 1.5 people, resulting in a wasteful use of the road space.

Compare this to a bus, which carries typically between 60 and 120 passengers. It clearly makes sense from a road space perspective to prioritise and invest in providing buses on the road network.

The next logical step obviously is to invest in urban rail systems. With each train cabin capable of carrying around 250 passengers, there are huge gains on offer from the perspective of maximising the efficiency of the available road space.

Encouraging personal transport

However, there are cheaper alternatives when it comes to maximising the use of road space such as walking and cycling, both of which can easily be overlooked when it comes to planning urban mobility strategies.

The bicycle is a popular, healthy and non-polluting mode of transport that is now making a comeback as a reliable and cheap means to navigate the city, having been eclipsed by motorised vehicles for decades.

Addressing safety concerns of cyclists having to mingle with larger motor vehicles is the critical factor, and has prompted city authorities around the world to invest in segregated infrastructure for cyclists, and so encourage their greater usage.

The idea of establishing a network of well signposted, safe, and prioritised routes for cyclists can also be applied to encourage more pedestrians in cities. Making people feel safe and comfortable to walk short journeys rather than use taxis or buses, it reduces congestion and frees capacity on the public transport system.

Demand management

Another part of the road congestion reduction equation is to manage demand for travel by rationing or prioritising road space during the rush hour.

For example, allowing only high occupancy vehicles, such as cars and buses to use the city roads during the rush hour has demonstrated that behaviour can be changed, with people incentivised to either form car pools or take the bus to work.

Other ideas to regulate flow include permits that allow only specific vehicles – perhaps chosen by vehicle registration number – to use the city roads on any day or the use of bans on freight deliveries outside certain hours.

More controversial is the use of congestion charges or high car city centre parking charges. Both have been very effective in terms of regulating car use and also in generating revenue to plough back into the public transport systems. However, there are clear political risks from imposing such unpopular policies and this has prevented many local authorities from embracing the idea.

Finally, given that the majority of road traffic congestion in cities is seen during the daily tidal flow to work in the mornings and home again in the evenings, many city authorities are now encouraging the staggering of work hours and the use of flexi-time working. And of course, with the advent of technology in our daily lives, telecommuting could ultimately reduce all need for travel to work. 

Technology to transform door-to-door transport

The private hire market has been transformed by online services such as Uber and Grab which have entered the market to complement the existing public transport services and provide convenient on-demand transport.

The use of apps to enable simple, cost effective booking and use of private hire vehicles have transformed the customer experience of the taxi and private hire cars. The logical next step in this service is the introduction of autonomous driverless vehicles capable of safely and efficiently transporting passengers from door-to-door on demand.

Conclusion

The answer to the urban mobility challenge lies in first understanding the needs of the transport user. Only then can we provide efficient service options that provide realistic, convenient, and affordable alternatives to the private car.

It is clear that no single solution holds the key to the congestion problems faced by cities. Instead, we must tackle the issues on multiple fronts, ensuring that the differing needs of travellers are addressed so as to create a genuinely sustainable transport future for modern cities.

Ultimately, by investing in public transport and non-motorised transport, and demand management measures to control the inefficient and widespread use of the private vehicle, cities will be able to reduce congestion, boost productivity and free the space currently devoted to road transport. As a result, we will be able to focus our urban design efforts away from the demands of the motor car, and towards the needs of people to create an environmentally friendly, liveable, and attractive place for everyone to live and work.

从地缘经济视角看“一带一路”

2013年,中国提出“一带一路”全球经济倡议,通过开发基础设施打造区域互联互通,从而提高全球贸易和经济增长。根据“一带一路”的规划,经济带将沿着古代丝绸之路和海上丝绸之路,横跨亚洲、中东和欧洲,南下太平洋、印度洋再北上地中海,连接65个国家。“一带一路”所涉65国占全球总人口的65%、全球GDP的三分之一、全球贸易的40%、全球商品和服务流动的四分之一。就实体规模、经济规模及地理范围而言,“一带一路”倡议可谓21世纪最雄心万丈的经济工程。

去年9月,我在某个会议上提到,全球经济不容乐观,要想大力刺激或拉动全球经济,重新恢复增长,只有两个办法:一是跨太平洋伙伴关系协定(TPP),二是“一带一路”倡议。虽然近来不断有人试图使TPP起死回生,但目前可说回天乏术。全球合作愿景仅剩“一带一路”倡议能成为全球经济的增长引擎。有人偶尔会拿“一带一路”与美国的“马歇尔计划”相提并论,但实际上“一带一路”的规模比“马歇尔计划”大12倍。

“一带一路”的经济规模有多大?从现在到2030年,亚太地区需要投资26万亿美元建设基础设施。未来10年,亚洲每年需要投资1.7万亿美元用于基础设施建设,才能维持增长。有估计认为,未来 “一带一路”长期累计的投资将达4万亿至8万亿美元。因此,“一带一路”国家乐见并支持此倡议,希望以此加速其基础设施驱动的经济发展。2013年至今,中国向“一带一路”沿线国家投资总计600亿美元,最近还宣布,未来五年,每年将对外投资达到1200亿至1300亿美元,总计投资6000亿美元。

资金从何而来?中国为展现领导“一带一路”倡议的能力,启动了诸如规模1000亿美元的亚洲基础设施投资银行、规模400亿美元的丝路基金,以及1000亿美元的新开发银行。中国国家主席习近平在“一带一路”高峰论坛上承诺,将为“一带一路”的项目提供1240亿美元融资,其中90亿用于“一带一路”的发展中国家。这是一个规模宏大且志向高远的计划,而且发起人中国立志落实。

不要质疑中国的部署能力_

有人质疑中国是否有能力部署这个伟大工程,尤其是西方媒体。在我看来,不论由谁主导,是中国或是美国日本或其他经济强国,如此大规模的全球倡议,实施时必然面临挑战和阻碍。融资便是首个障碍,因为基础设施项目始终会面临可融资性的问题。此外,一旦涉及外国投资,必然涉及诸如东道国政治稳定与否、当地既得利益及可能出现的阻力,以及项目管理与实施的风险等问题。最后,还会有基础设施建成后运营成效的风险。

中国有能力实施这一宏伟的计划吗?过去几十年,中国已切实证明其落实大规模项目并实现宏伟工程规划的能力。1982年,我首次访华,当时中国还深陷赤贫,人均国内生产总值(GDP)仅200美元,位于世界上最大却最穷的国家之列。35年后,中国人均GDP翻了40倍,达8000美元。1981年,中国88%的人口生活在贫穷线下,农村贫困人口达96%;2010年,中国贫困人口不到10%。中国目前是全球第二大经济体,资金储备惊人,一度超过4万亿美元。没有人预料到中国脱胎换骨的转变。

中国没有丰富的石油等天然资源,却仍然使7亿人口脱贫,城市人口比率从16%上升至55.5%,是人类历史上最成功的移民故事。1982年至今,我定期访问中国;20多年来,我在不同城市做房地产生意——至今不变。起初,我对中国选择开展的宏大项目并不乐观。过去30年间,中国完成了几个大型基础设施项目,带来了翻天覆地的变化,其中包括上海浦东新区。这个起初不过是大片稻田的地段,现已成为世界上最繁荣的金融中心之一;还有三峡大坝。中国还新建铁路2万公里,包括高海拔的青藏铁路、世界一次建成线路里程最长的高速铁路京沪高铁、港珠澳大桥,还有北京首都国际机场等,不胜枚举。

我见过中国太多争天抗俗背后的雄心壮志,也见过这些雄心壮志如何迅速成真。我学会不低估中国,也不质疑他们扬言要实现的伟大计划。

当然,这些都是大型的国内项目,与诸如“一带一路”等跨境项目所面临的挑战有天壤之别。工程如此巨大,其规划必然也充满因政治、金融、技术、环境和社会及其他与协作相关问题所致的不确定因素。在全球基础设施工程中,这些因素必然存在,无论推手是中国或其他经济强国。尽管如此,我认为中国必须与其他国家缔结伙伴关系,“一带一路”还要有商业和多边发展组织参与,以确保其最终取得成功。

我到底如何看待“一带一路”,又如何看待中国在全球影响日渐深远这个感知印象呢?

一带一路能缓和保护主义情绪_

美国和欧盟保护主义情绪日趋高涨,世界的增长和全球贸易,对防止保护主义情绪升级至关重要。在所有这些国家当中,就业是重要的政治议题,尤其对欧洲及美国中下层民众而言。落实“一带一路”本身能推动增长,并且创造需求和就业,以缓和全球的保护主义情绪。

至于发展中国家,增长就更关键了。多数发展中国家,例如亚细安、中亚及南亚,都面临人口统计学家所谓的“青年人口膨胀”问题,因为年轻人口越来越多。失业会导致这些国家高度不稳定。任何推动经济发展并创造就业的全球动力和倡议,必然有积极意义。

在初始阶段,有人质疑中国与东道国之间是否能实现互惠互利。这些人声称,抵达中国的列车满载,但返程空载,两地贸易方程并不平衡。上周,中国驻英大使刘晓明在英国《金融时报》发表文章表示,关于中欧班列空返的说法不准确。他说,今年一季度,中国海关共验放中欧班列62列,货物共2850箱,总重3万5027吨,返程空箱率仅为11.4%;与去年同期相比,集装箱数量增加近两倍,空箱率却下降一半。中欧班列自2011年开行以来,至今已累计开行3000多列,中国国内开行城市已达27个,覆盖21个省区市,到达欧洲11个国家的28个城市,到2020年将达年开行约5000列。2014年至2016年,中国同“一带一路”沿线国家贸易总额超过3万亿美元,服务贸易比率也在提升。

中国对“一带一路”沿线国家投资累计超过600亿美元,未来五年内,中国的对外投资将达到6000亿至8000亿美元,而且大部分将流向“一带一路”沿线国家。

从经济角度来看,许多诸如美国、欧盟和日本等发达国家的企业,也能从“一带一路”倡议中受益。中国及各东道国必然需要充分利用全球的产业,并购买整个增值链中发达国家服务供应商的服务,包括总体规划、设计、建筑学服务、咨询、项目管理和法律与金融服务等,不一而足。建筑业巨头及机器和设备供应商,例如通用电气、西门子、卡特彼勒、劳斯莱斯、空客等,在“一带一路”项目中很可能发挥极大作用。金融机构如高盛、瑞士银行、摩根大通等,也可以参与基础设施融资。发达国家自身基础设施发展较为成熟,上述产业主体必然乐见国外开展如此庞大的工程。另外,实施“一带一路”的间接影响,以及美国、欧盟、日本等发达国家产业主体的潜在利益,也都不容忽视。

有了“一带一路”及持续的增长和发展,今日如亚细安、中亚和中欧等发展中国家便可发展起来,并且推进工业化和城镇化。而这些地区随着其收入提高和中产阶级扩大,也能成为中国及诸如美国、欧盟和日本等发达国家未来的市场。

一带一路须开放包容_

诚然,“一带一路”会加强中国的支配地位和影响。任何一个国家,如果在另一个国家大量投资或开展大规模的贸易,必然对该国有一定的政治、甚至潜移默化的文化影响。我认为这一点不可避免。这种影响是积极或消极,是个见仁见智的问题;显然,不同国家,就有不同的地缘政治考量。中国在全球贸易的支配地位和影响在全世界都能感受到,不论有无“一带一路”。

对于东道国而言,“一带一路”所可能带来的直接和间接利益,很可能大于其对中国全球支配地位的关切,不论关乎政治或其他方面。那些并不直接参与的国家,也能通过加入实施过程并分享增长契机而获益。对我而言,不参加或不参与都不是办法。

最后我想说,现今世界缺乏主要增长引擎。我认为,“一带一路”是全球经济未来10年的主要推动力。这是一个针对发展全球基础设施,进而改善亚欧国家互联互通而设计的工程规划。有规划和愿景,总比没规划和愿景要好;努力使规划行之有效,又总比臆度揣测规划是否可行更好。新兴国家资源有限,或许没能力探索寻思其在全球拓展的愿景。中国有能力和经验,但如果没有所有东道国家参与及协作,规划也无法全部实现。中国也需要其他发达国家在服务和专长上的必要支持。如果各方都愿意搭上“一带一路”列车,与中国携手落实“一带一路”倡议,世界的经济面貌将焕然一新。最终的结果将是“三赢”——中国会赢,发展中国家会赢,发达国家也会赢。尽管经济增长和创造财富本身不能解决所有困扰当今世界的地缘政治问题,但绝对能帮助消除贫困并改善大量人口的生活品质、减少就业问题。其间接效益是维持政治稳定,尤其在脆弱和欠发达地区。

换言之,“一带一路”前景乐观。

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Jurong Island: What it takes to achieve a world-class petrochemicals hub

The stellar success of Singapore’s Jurong Island Chemical Hub can be attributed to clever land utilisation, adaptability to volatile markets and adequate attention to safety and security

Singapore has no oil or gas resources and limited land space. But against all odds, it has achieved tremendous success in the petrochemical industry. Today, Singapore is the third-largest oil refining centre in the world, the largest bunkering port and, one of the top 3 oil trading hubs in the world and the price discovery centre of Asia’s oil trading industry.

And Jurong Island Chemical Hub, the pillar of Singapore’s petrochemicals industry, is an embodiment of Singapore’s success. The island is an amalgamation of seven small islands in the western part of Singapore, formed through land reclamation. The process started in 1983 through the combined effort of various government agencies in Singapore, in particular the Economic Development Board and JTC Corporation.

Despite having no feedstock advantage or a substantial domestic market to support the petrochemical production, Jurong Island has persevered through stiff competition and maintained its position as one of the top global petrochemical hubs. Today, Jurong Island Chemical Hub is home to almost 90 international petroleum and chemical companies, and has contributed to investments of over S$47 billion. The Hub manufactures refined & chemical products from integrated petrochemical complexes of oil majors Exxon Mobil and Shell, intermediate products from chemical producers such as Sumitomo & BASF, to automotive chemicals and agro-chemicals, from firms such as Evonik and Solvay.

We look at some of the critical reasons for this success.

1. Effective utilisation of land space

The effective utilisation of land has allowed all these facilities to be built within a relatively small area. There is a large focus on infrastructural support such as common pipeline corridors to make plant-to-plant transfers easier and more cost efficient. The close proximity of the plants allow one company’s output to be used as feedstock for another, thereby reducing logistics costs. Additionally, the presence of third-party providers that handle non-manufacturing services helps reduce costs. The network also offers companies alternative options for product storage, freeing up space to carry out more processing.

The Jurong Rock Caverns (JRC) are also an important breakthrough in the provision of infrastructure for the Jurong Island Chemical Hub. When the idea was first conceptualised in the early 2000s, storing oil underground was unheard of in Singapore and in many parts of the world. The JRC is constructed at about 130m below the sea and is designed for flexible operations that can link to various customers on the island. Surbana Jurong, together with Geostock, embarked on the basic engineering design and construction management, including commissioning, of the JRC in 2006. The Jurong Rock Caverns Phase 1 officially opened in 2014. With 1.47 million cubic metres of storage space underground, it freed up about 60 hectares of surface land. Now that this previously unthinkable idea has become a reality, further underground expansion is being considered.

2. Adaptability and flexibility

Singapore has been able to adapt to market volatility, allowing the industry to flourish. With the Jurong Island Version 2.0 Initiative announced, the focus expanded from investment attraction to enhancing competitiveness and sustainability through creating robustness, optimization and optionality. Instead of building more refineries, Jurong Island will transform itself to focus on specialty chemicals, which are generally used in the textile, automotive and agriculture sectors. They are higher up the value chain as they serve more unique functions, and in 2015 it was reported that one-third of more than S$6 billion in fixed asset investments over recent years came from specialty chemicals alone.

Some countries have seen some difficulty in attracting specialty chemical investments due to lax intellectual property laws. Singapore has managed to gain investor confidence in this sector due to its intellectual property protection laws, access to skilled labour and research and development capabilities.

Flexibility is important in finding solutions to challenges. Take for example the ongoing development of the Pengerang Integrated Petroleum Complex, a petrochemicals hub in Johor, Malaysia. Although at first glance it might seem to pose a threat, there is also potential for both Singapore and Malaysia to collaborate and mutually benefit, given that land is limited in Singapore.

3. Safety and security

Safety is arguably the most important factor in ensuring Jurong Island operates smoothly. A key lesson is that in the implementation of a project, from the initial planning and design stages to construction and operation of facilities, meticulous supervision is required and must be enforced.

Additionally, in-depth knowledge of the industry is essential, as facilities see thousands of chemicals and products that possess unique properties. Knowledge of and experience with handling these products are paramount in ensuring safe, synergistic clustering.

Singapore has extremely high standards and rigorous guidelines on individual plant safety – vital for plants so close to one another. Should an unfortunate accident occur, Singapore has shown it can respond efficiently, like it did during the 2016 Jurong Aromatics fire.

Started in a condensate storage tank within the plant, the fire was isolated and put out by the Company Emergency Response Team (CERT) and the Singapore Civil Defence Force (SCDF) in a 5 hour operation. The neighbouring companies were evacuated immediately despite there being no immediate threat, and companies with connecting pipelines to the affected plant executed mitigation measures to isolate any potential escalation of the fire to their own facilities. All stakeholders were in constant communication while they monitored the situation, and the SCDF also updated the fire situation through Facebook. Such a transparent and proven effective response system is necessary to maintain the confidence and trust of both investors and the public.

What is in store for the future of Singapore’s petrochemicals industry?

A foreseeable challenge to the industry is the world’s move towards protectionism. This means that Asian refiners, especially those in Singapore, need to constantly innovate to stay competitive.

Moving ahead, some things that could be considered for the future of Jurong Island are the development of sustainable feedstock and technologies, moving towards lower carbon emissions and improving overall energy efficiency. Additionally, floating platforms could be considered to increase space, or perhaps even Hyperloop technology, such as that proposed in Dubai, to increase product transport efficiency.

A comprehensive development plan is merely the first step in achieving success. Singapore has the added advantage of a whole-of-government ecosystem, whereby various government agencies form a cohesive committee to support the development plan. The collective experience of the team that implements the plan and a focus on prudence and adaptability to global economic and oil cycles are vital to turn the dream into reality. Jurong Island already stands as testimony to this.

整体性的安全- 亚洲随工业4.0复兴的成功关节

过去的亚洲, 未来的亚洲, 人多的亚洲

盘古开天至工业大革命, 亚洲一直是经济与科技的中心点。单单是宋代的中国就占了世界的生产总值的80%。

然而18世纪工业大革命之后,西方国家通过科技创新, 在经济和生活素质上迅速地超越了亚洲。

二战后, 亚洲国家的经济与科技摆脱了封建的包袱,先后改革。现在也有望回复昔日的领先地位。根据亚洲发展银行 的估计, 在2050年,亚洲其中有30亿人口可享有西欧目前的生活水平; 亚洲的生产总值也能达到全球的50%。

工业4.0

低劳资成本当然也是这几十年来亚洲复兴的推动力。可是科技创新更是亚洲在工业4.0大趋势里的主要成功因素。亚洲在工业物联网的投资与发展是这趋势的最好验证。市场调擦名家,Frost & Sullivan 估计亚太的工业物联网的市场会在五年内猛增5倍(至150亿美元。)

云端技术让我们以前所未有的规模、速度和深度搜集、储存和 分析数据,因而能够发现之前无法察觉的微弱关联性,并且找 出原本复杂到无法理解的系统内部运作情况。在云端运算和高 级分析能力的支持下,人工智能、机器人、基因技术、材料科 学、3D打印等领域的发展可谓一日千里。

云端技术与行动装置的结合,使我们可以在任何时间,从任何 地点取得信息,并与他人联系,这意味着我们将有无限的空 间,可以重新想象经营企业、联系客户、管理人力、购买货物 与组织供应链的方式。
 

崭新的繁荣, 崭新的挑战,整体地处理

繁华盛世也存有些隐忧。 潘祖健之前在 文章“智慧城的四骑士”里提到治安会是亚洲未来数十年里最大的挑战之一。治安能分两大类-》 实体安全与知讯安全。 可是在物联网与互联网时代, 两类治安之间的楚河汉界也模糊了。如果要有效地应对治安上的挑战, 亚洲社会就得同时间地面对它们。我们得积极地设计出整体性的安全战略与解决方案。

齐家治国平天下 整体性的安全概念

让我们用实际例子来了解这整体性的安全概念。 我们先以人数为出发点-》在2017年,中国国家发展和改革委员会此前预测,2017年春运整体客流量将达到29.78亿人次 ; 在2050年- 亚洲的人口总数可达50亿。 在 “人潮汹涌“的冲击下, 保持治安是各国,各层政府的一大挑战。 这挑战不止限于因犯罪案件与人口直线比率,而随着人口增长那么简单。 在未来亚洲的大城市, 市民回来至不同的族群。 我们能从历史上体会到当不同文化, 宗教与经济背景的族群在同一个有限的空间互动时, 很容易发生误解,摩擦与争议。

这显然不是一个单以增加保安团队人数可以解决的问题。科技是解决人口所带来的安全挑战的之中主要关节。 面部识别, 大数字分析 与 运算- 安全科技日新月异, 让治安团体能突破人力所带来的局限, 大幅度地提高治安效率。 在繁荣与多人口的未来, 安全科技是一个亚洲不可缺的架构。

要成功地执行整体性的安全概念, 亚洲各国也需同时关心建筑,城市规划与治安的关系。 好的城市规划得融入实体安全与知讯安全的考虑。这包括实体安全 (如公共设施是否有足够的灯光, 公安组织地点分配等等), 还有知讯安全对网络的架构方面的需求。ICT 规划 也应该是城市顶层规划的重要环节。

道高一尺魔高一丈

另一方面,物联网与互联网科技也能沦为不法之徒的武器。  根据致同国际会计师事务所(Grant Thornton)的一项调查显示, 在2015年,在亚太地区发生的网络攻击造成的商业损失高于813亿美元。 这数字超过了北美和欧盟 (北美和欧盟个别的损失估计只有200亿美元。)

随着物联网与SCADA系统的互动, SCADA系统也成为网络攻击的一大目标。 趋势科技报告(2016 Global Roundup Report)亚太计算机病毒事件比其它地区严重。 当中Mirai botnet也侵入10万台物联网仪器 (IoT devices)。

微软云惠天下

在这物联网与互联网科技日新月异的时代, 亚洲不能重复历史的错误, 再次自我封闭。 要达到云惠天下的佳境, 微软提出了三个概念: 可信云, 负责云, 与包容云。

可信云

随着数字化的程度日益提高,我们所产生、收集的个人资料, 已经达到史无前例的规模。这些数据可以用于提高云端服务的 效能,用来制造更好的产品,也可以帮助各国政府、企业和研 究者更加了解人类的行为模式。
有了这些数据,透过云端彼此链接的的日常用品可以产生互 动,并做出可以改善生活质量,提升企业经营效率以及推动新 型公共服务的事情。
云端运算所支撑的数据分析、机器学习和人工智能,在帮助制 造业、教育、医疗以及其他诸多领域的机构了解复杂的系统, 提高效率,降低成本,解决难题,及开发出全新的能力。
随着更多的物联网装置链接到云端,微软更加专注在云端的安全性。

当人们日常生活中使用行动装置、智能型手机和其他设备产生 的数据掌握在企业和政府手中时,理所当然,我们会担忧个人 隐私被侵犯,害怕无法掌控基于算法做出的决定,同时,基 于数据分析做出的观察和预测对个人经济产生负面效应的风险 也会增加。人们如果无法确信数据的隐私性和安全性,对于使 用云端服务就必定会心存疑虑。

政府可以制定适用范围广泛、有约束力的法律规范,为人们提供 法律保障,让他们确信个人资料储存在云端里安全无虞,也相信企业和政府有责任必须正当地使用高级分析和算法决策。
隐私保护架构不应过于严格,以致阻碍 政府、企业和其他组织机构以合乎道德的方式透过数据分析获 得洞见。有一种方式可以两全其美,使隐私保护架构既可达成 这一目标,又可降低侵犯隐私权的风险,那就是鼓励实施数 据集的去识别化,使得研究者无法将个人资料连结到特定的个 人。涉及敏感资料和高级分析时,隐私保护架构应赋予企业和 政府足够的弹性,对数据搜集的目的和数据分析技术的内部工 作机制进行说明,以确保企业和政府能够获得更广泛的洞见, 提升给消费者带来的利益。
负责云

在增强人类能力和推动社会进步方面,人工智能(AI)几 乎前景无限。随着无人驾驶汽车、可以预测我们需求的个 人数字助理以及计算机化健康诊断的兴起,人工智能正在让 人们的生活变得更加美好。人工智能取得的最新进展包括 机器学习、推理和感知领域,而所有这些都是由云端运算 所推动。

透过快速、大规模地对数据进行分析,并将个人装置与整个数 据中心的运算资源相连接,云端运算已经成为提供人工智能服 务的主要平台。云端服务还可以确保所有人都能享受人工智能 服务,虽然它们通常需要庞大的计算机密集型基础设施。
为促进人工智能领域的创新以及人工智能的应用,各国政府应 制定法律和政策架构,提供数据获取权限,鼓励对人工智能技 术的投资,并确保人工智能技术值得信赖。人工智能的出现会 带来新的议题和质疑。为支持人工智能的创新、保护普世价值 观(如尊重个人自治和隐私),必须仔细考虑并审慎因应这些 新的议题和质疑。

落实法律和做法的现代化,为人工智能的应用提供环境。人工 智能需要取得数据;机器必须取得大数据集,对其中的模式进 行识别,否则就无法「学习」。各国政府应仔细评估是否需要 修订与取得数据相关的现行法律,以利用人工智能带来的利 益。举例来说,在充分保护作品的表达性价值的同时,版权法 不应对从作品中提取数据进行原创性分析的行为加以限制,这 种行为在为人们提供与人工智能有关的有用见解的同时,不会 与版权所有者形成竞争关系。涉及个人信息时,各国政府应当 在隐私权益和人工智能取得数据所带来的益处之间谨慎权衡。 在提高云端运算的变革性影响力方面,各国政府也可以发挥重 要作用,例如政府可以鼓励公司为共有资源库提供数据,将之 用于数据分析,并在不公开商业秘密或专有信息的前提下共享 分析结果。此外,各国政府应在保护隐私权和国家安全的前提 下,确保公众有权对政府收集的所有数据进行分析。

 

包容云

在2050年, 地球6成的人口将会居于亚洲。 我们得在整体性的安全架构下积极地把科技融入我们的日常生活里。 同时我们的确保科技所带来的繁荣与进步也给亚洲各社群受益。 这可就是包容云的理想。

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